{"id":2841,"date":"2025-05-19T18:52:36","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T10:52:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deekpay.com\/?p=2841"},"modified":"2025-05-19T18:52:36","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T10:52:36","slug":"%e5%8d%b0%e5%ba%a6%e6%94%af%e4%bb%98%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e4%ba%94%e5%b9%b4%e5%8f%91%e5%b1%95%e8%b6%8b%e5%8a%bf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deekpay.com\/en\/2025\/05\/19\/%e5%8d%b0%e5%ba%a6%e6%94%af%e4%bb%98%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e4%ba%94%e5%b9%b4%e5%8f%91%e5%b1%95%e8%b6%8b%e5%8a%bf\/","title":{"rendered":"Trends in Indian payments over the next five years"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align:center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ts42.mm.bing.net\/th?q=phonepe41\" alt=\"Trends in Indian payments over the next five years\" title=\"Trends in Indian payments over the next five years\"><\/p>\n<p>The Indian payments industry is poised for high growth and deep transformation over the next five years (2024-2028), driven primarily by the<strong>Digital infrastructure penetration, policy drivers, changing consumer habits and technological innovation<\/strong>Drive. Key trends are analysed below:<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>1. UPI dominance continues to strengthen<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>market size<\/strong>: UPI transaction volume is expected to increase from 10 billion transactions\/month in 2023 to 30 billion transactions\/month in 2028, accounting for more than 75% of non-cash payments.<\/li>\n<li><strong>International Expansion<\/strong>: Cross-border UPI co-operation with countries like Singapore and the UAE will be expanded to potentially cover the remittance scenario for the Indian diaspora in South East Asia and the Middle East.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Functional upgrades<\/strong>: Credit payments (e.g., RuPay credit card tied to UPI), offline transactions, and smart contract functionality will gradually fall into place.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>2. Embedded finance and the rise of super applications<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Full Eco-Payment Integration<\/strong>: E-commerce platforms (Flipkart), social apps (WhatsApp Pay) and local service providers (Swiggy, Zomato) will be deeply integrated with payments, creating a closed loop of \"shopping-social-finance\".<\/li>\n<li><strong>BNPL explodes with growth<\/strong>: The \"buy now, pay later\" market size may exceed $20 billion (currently about $3 billion), attracting players such as Paytm and Amazon Pay to enter the market.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>3. CBDC (digital rupee) pilot scale-up<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Wholesale CBDC<\/strong>: for inter-bank settlements to enhance the efficiency of cross-border remittances; retail CBDCs may cover 5%-10% population after 2026.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Policy incentives<\/strong>: The RBI may push merchants to accept the digital rupee through tax incentives or subsidies, especially in the rural financial inclusion sector.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<h3><em><strong>4. AI-driven risk control and personalised services<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n<p>Fraud detection system response time reduced to milliseconds;<br \/>\nDynamic credit scoring based on user behaviour covers people with no credit history;<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><em><strong>5. Digital penetration of offline payments<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n<p>QR code\/NFC coverage in small and medium-sized cities exceeds 80% (now about 50%);<br \/>\nWearable device payments (smart bands, etc.) may grow at an annual rate of 40%.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h2><em>Challenges and risks<\/em><\/h2>\n<p>1. Data privacy controversy intensifies<br \/>\n2. Network stability issues in rural areas<br \/>\n3. Potential for regulatory tightening triggered by the PAYTM incident<\/p>\n<p>Investors are advised to pay attention:<br \/>\n\u2192 UPI infrastructure provider<br \/>\n\u2192 AI Risk Control Solution Provider<br \/>\n\u2192 Cross-border payment channel construction<\/p>\n<p>Okay, let's move on to delve into other key trends, segmentation opportunities, and potential risk points in the Indian payments industry over the next five years:<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>6. Revolutionary breakthroughs in cross-border payments<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p><strong>Real-time cross-border settlement network<\/strong>::<br \/>\nInterconnection of RBI's fast payment systems (e.g. PayNow) with Singapore, UAE, etc. will be normalised, with a projected cross-border UPI transaction share of 151 TP3T by 2028 (currently &lt;31 TP3T).<br \/>\n<em>case (law)<\/em>: Handling charges for remittances from Indian labourers to their families in the Philippines through UPI may be reduced from TP51T to less than TP11T.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>The Regulatory Sandbox for Cryptocurrencies<\/strong>::<br \/>\nDespite caution, India may pilot stablecoins (e.g., INR-anchored tokens) for use in specific international trade scenarios, particularly in the area of software service exports.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<h3><strong>7. \"Last-mile\" solutions for rural financial inclusion<\/strong><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Voice payment and low-end device adaptation<\/strong>::<br \/>\nLightweight UPI apps that support dialectal voice commands (similar to Google Pay Spot) will reach 100 million+ feature phone users.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Expansion of correspondent banking network<\/strong>::<br \/>\nOrganisations such as India Post Payments Bank (IPPB) are likely to provide cash-to-digital conversion services through 300,000 village-level kiosks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<h3><em><strong>8. The wave of automation in B2B payments<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Supply Chain Finance Platforms on the Rise<\/strong>::<br \/>\nTReDS (Trade Receivables Discounting Platform) transaction size may quintuple to $50bn, SMEs can raise funds in seconds with blockchain notes.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Dynamic Discounting Popularised<\/strong>::<br \/>\nAutomated early payment system based on ERP integration helps suppliers gain 1%-3% additional liquidity benefits.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<h3><em><strong>9. Tipping point for biometric payments<\/strong><\/em><\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Market Size Forecast<\/em>: Fingerprint\/facial recognition payment users will increase from 80 million in 2023 to 400 million in 2028.<\/li>\n<li><em>Innovative directions<\/em>: Integration of Aadhaar identity system with in-vehicle payments - \"swipe to commute\" at petrol pumps\/expressway toll plazas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr>\n<h2><strong>[New threat matrix analysis]<\/strong> (in order of probability of occurrence)<\/h2>\n<table>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Type of risk<\/th>\n<th>typical scenario<\/th>\n<th>mitigation<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Regulatory fragmentation<\/td>\n<td>A state government imposes additional tax on QR codes<\/td>\n<td>Establishment of a national legislative framework for electronic payments<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Accumulation of technical liabilities<\/td>\n<td>Older ATM systems are not CBDC compatible<\/td>\n<td>Mandatory IT Upgrade Schedule for Financial Institutions<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Social engineering scam targets elderly population<\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<td><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<hr>\n<h2><strong>[Investment hotspot mapping]<\/strong><\/h2>\n<pre><code class=\"language-mermaid\">pie <br>\r\n    title Forecast of capital flows in 2028<br>\r\n    \"AI Risk Control Tools\" : 35%<br>\r\n    \"Offline payment hardware (smart POS, etc.)\" : 25%<br>\r\n    \"SaaS+Payment for Agricultural Supply Chain\" :20%<br>\r\n<\/code><\/pre>\n<hr>\n<h2><em><strong>Recommendations for action<\/strong><\/em><\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>For entrepreneurs<\/strong> : Development of AR bill scanning tool supporting 12 Indian languages (pain point for rural merchants);<\/li>\n<li><\/li>\n<\/ol>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Indian payments industry is poised for high growth over the next five years (2024-2028)...<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-38"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.9 (Yoast SEO v23.7) - 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